By Appaloosa

Introduction

After completing my recent article on which teams drafted best in the first round between 1995 and 2004, I began to wonder about the impact of first round drafting success on team winning percentage.

NFL teams spend millions on scouting college players, testing prospects in every conceivable way at the Combine, and bringing in potential picks for individual workouts. Yet every year a few teams will draft busts – guys who are lacking motivation, are injury-prone, whose skills don’t fit the team, or who just can’t stay out of trouble.

According to Bill Polian, the general manager of the Colts, when a team drafts a bust, it loses three things it can never get back: 1) the time taken to scout the selection, 2) the money paid to the bust that eats into the team’s salary cap, and 3) the pick that could have been used to get a player who could have helped the team.

It seems intuitive that teams that draft well in the first round should enjoy success on the field, but it doesn’t always seem to work that way in real life. For example, the Cowboys have not drafted a complete bust since 1994, but they have not won a playoff game in an equally long period of time. On the other hand, the Packers have rarely drafted well in the first round, but have one of the best records in the league since the start of the 21st Century.

The following report is based on two sets of data - numerical grades for each player selected in the first round between 1995 and 2004, and the winning percentage of each team in the league between 1998 and 2007. The lag time of three years was selected because it usually requires about three years for first round draft picks to sort themselves out between busts, average, and above average players and to have a real impact on their teams’ success or lack thereof.

Grading System

I have graded all first round draft picks between 1995 and 2004 on a 5 point scale as follows:

1) Bust – the epitome of a wasted pick
2) Disappointment – not a total bust, but not worth the pick
3) Starter – an average first round draft pick
4) Pro Bowler – made the Pro Bowl at least once and had a generally good career
5) Canton Class – a consistently great player for many years

The grades for each first round draft pick were based on position-specific statistics, percentage of possible starts, and number of Pro Bowls to which the player was voted. The stats were compared with all other first round picks at the same position, which allowed for a reasonably objective grading system.

Correlation

For a complete list of average draft grades 1995 to 2004 for each NFL team, please refer to my article “Which Teams Draft Best in the First Round?” These grades were correlated with each team’s winning percentage between 1998 and 2007.

For those who are not well-versed in statistics, the measure of correlation between two groups of data is the “r” value. This value ranges between zero (no correlation) and one (perfect correlation) and can be either positive or negative.

The “r” value calculated for the correlation between draft grade and winning percentage is 0.383, which indicates a positive correlation between the two statistics.

But does a “r” value of 0.383 really mean anything? Luckily, one can calculate a “t” value that can be compared to a table value to determine the significance of the correlation. If the calculated “t” value is higher than the table value, then the correlation is significant.

The calculated “t” value for the correlation above is 2.27, which is higher than the table “t” of 2.04. Therefore, the correlation between draft grade and winning percentage is significant.

For those who are wondering if teams that win consistently and therefore tend to pick late in the first round, I also ran a correlation between average draft position and draft grade. The “r” value for this correlation was -0.237, which indicates a weak negative relationship between draft position and draft grade. In other words teams that draft later tend to get less highly graded players.

However, the calculated “t” value for the correlation is 1.33, which is less than the table “t” of 2.04. This means that draft position has no significant impact on player quality. Some teams just have a knack for drafting well in spite of regularly drafting late.

Conclusion

NFL teams are right to spend so much time and money on evaluating potential first round draft picks. Although drafting the occasional bust is not fatal, one of the surest ways for a team to win consistently is to get good value out of its first round draft picks.

Come discuss this article HERE!

tony g

After a couple of weeks of speculation on a deal that would send future hall of fame TE to Atlanta, the trade has finally been culminated.

Read the rest of this entry »

By Appaloosa.

Introduction

Recently I saw an article on the web in which the author assigned grades to each NFL team for its drafting prowess. The article was effective for what the author was trying to do (even if he did give my favorite team a D). He used objective measures such as number of starters and number of Pro Bowl players that came out of each team’s total draft. However, the earliest draft the analysis was based on was 2003, which meant that some of the players on whom he based his grades had been in the league for only a year or two.

One or two years after the draft is too early to fairly grade most NFL draft picks. Many players, especially quarterbacks and wide receivers need a few years to make the adjustment from college to the pros. Others start off looking great only to fall flat due to injury, character flaws, or merely being one trick ponies.

It requires a good five years to fairly grade all draft picks. Therefore, my study is based on the 1995 through 2004 drafts, which allows even the youngest players a minimum of five seasons in the league.

To keep the data within manageable limits, I concentrated on the first round of each draft, since that is where the lion’s share of the money goes. Few teams that do not draft well in the first round can remain successful for long. Between blowing salary cap bucks on busts and losing out on players that can help the team in the long run, the team that fails in the first round of the draft most commonly fail on the field.

Grading System

I have graded all first round draft picks between 1995 and 2004 on a 5 point scale as follows:

1) Bust – the epitome of a wasted pick
2) Disappointment – not a total bust, but not worth the pick
3) Starter – an average first round draft pick
4) Pro Bowler – made the Pro Bowl at least once and had a generally good career
5) Canton Class – a consistently great player for many years

The grades for each first round draft pick were based on position-specific statistics, percentage of possible starts, and number of Pro Bowls to which the player was voted. The stats were compared with all other first round picks at the same position, which allowed for a reasonably objective grading system.

Team Grades

Every team in the NFL is listed below with the average first round draft grade in parentheses and best and worst first round picks.

Baltimore Ravens (4.00) Best pick Ray Lewis; worst pick Kyle Boller

Indianapolis Colts (3.78) Best pick Peyton Manning; worst pick Rob Morris

New York Jets (3.36) Best pick Keyshawn Johnson; worst pick Jonathan Becht

Washington Redskins (3.33) Best pick Chris Samuels; worst pick Andre Johnson

Tennessee/Houston Oilers/Titans (3.13) Best pick Eddie George; worst pick Kenny Holmes

Buffalo Bills (3.10) Best pick Ruben Brown; worst pick Erik Flowers

Pittsburgh Steelers (3.10) Best pick Alan Faneca; worst pick Jamain Stephens

Denver Broncos (3.00) Best pick Tevor Price; worst pick Marcus Nash

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.00) Best pick Derrick Brooks; worst pick Reidel Anthony

Dallas Cowboys (3.00) Best pick Roy Williams; worst pick David LaFleur

Philadelphia Eagles (3.00) Best pick Donnovan McNabb; worst pick Jon Harris

Jacksonville Jaguars (3.00) Best pick Tony Boselli; worst pick R. Jay Soward

St. Louis Rams (3.00) Best pick Torry Holt; worst pick Lawrence Phillips

Seattle Seahawks (2.92) Best pick Walter Jones; worst pick Marcus Tubbs

Minnesota Vikings (2.92) Best pick Randy Moss; worst pick Demitrius Underwood

Oakland Raiders (2.90) Best pick Charles Woodson; worst pick Matt Stinchcomb

New Orleans Saints (2.90) Best pick Will Smith; worst pick Jonathan Sullivan

Atlanta Falcons (2.88) Best pick Patrick Kerney; worst pick Michael Booker

Houston Texans (2.75) Best pick Andre Johnson; worst pick David Carr

New England Patriots (2.73) Best pick Ty Law; worst pick Chris Canty

New York Giants (2.67) Best pick Jeremy Shockey; worst pick William Joseph

Arizona Cardinals (2.64) Best pick Simeon Rice; worst pick Wendell Bryant

Kansas City Chiefs (2.63) Best pick Tony Gonzalez; worst pick Sylvester Morris

San Diego Chargers (2.60) Best pick LaDainien Tomlinson; worst pick Ryan Leaf

Cincinnati Bengals (2.55) Best pick Carson Palmer; worst pick Akili Smith

Carolina Panthers (2.55) Best pick Julius Peppers; worst pick Rae Carruth

Chicago Bears (2.40) Best pick Brian Urlacher; worst pick Michael Haynes

Detroit Lions (2.40) Best pick Jeff Hartings; worst pick Charles Rodgers

San Francisco 49ers (2.30) Best pick Julian Peterson; worst pick Reggie McGrew

Green Bay Packers (2.30) Best pick Nick Barnett; worst pick Jamal Reynolds

Cleveland Browns (2.29) Best pick Gerard Warren; worst pick Craig Powell

Miami Dolphins (1.67) Best pick Daryl Gardner; worst pick Yatil Green

By Nagai

1 Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford QB

There were 2 big names people wanted on the Lions’ boards - Matthew Stafford and Aaron Curry. I figured as good as Curry is, their LB core is better than their QB situation. I like Stafford too, I actually think he’s the real deal, so I went with him.

2 St. Louis Rams - Eugene Monroe OT

The great thing about this pick was that when I got to their boards, they already had a thread based on who the members think should be their pick at 2nd overall. They actually had a vote and though Curry was very close to winning it, Eugene Monroe came from behind and won it. I like the Rams drafting offense more anyways, I think it’s important to develop one side of the ball first and get a formula going.

3 Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry LB

Yeah, no surprise. Curry’s probably the best talent in this year’s draft, the Chiefs’ hit a home run.

4 Seattle Seahawks - Jason Smith OT

Yeah I know Crabtree’s here, but it looks like the peeps at Seattle think that guaranteeing the quality of the OL is more important. Hey, any move protecting Hasselbeck is a winner in my book.

5 Cleveland Browns - Everette Brown 34 OLB

Some may be slightly surprised at this pick, with Orakpo still on the board. Well, don’t be. Orakpo is ranked higher than Brown overall but Brown is the better candidate as a 34 OLB. His smaller size actually works in his favor here as Orakpo’s more stiff in space. Browns would love to have him.

6 Cincinnati Bengals - Michael Oher - OT

Is it just the boards I visit, or is this becoming a theme? No.1 step to fixing an offensively orientated team is the O line. The folks at cincy seemed to agree.

7 Oakland Raiders - Michael Crabtree WR

I laugh at everyone who thinks Maclin will go over Crabtree here. The Raiders’ always take the flashiest pick? Well flashy is a loose term my friend. If taking a punter was flashy to you then why not the top rated WR in the draft?

8 Jacksonville Jaguars - Mark Sanchez QB

I was very surprised at the number of people who wanted a new QB. Most boards I go to aren’t as high on drafting a QB as the media portrays it (guys at Seattle would be a good example). Sanchez would sit well with lots of people in Jacksonville methinks.

9 Green Bay Packers - BJ Raji DT

I hate doing mocks for GB, I really do. TT drafts by BPA and it’s BPA by his own board, which is always different to everyone else’s. Either way, a NT for a new 34 team is always pretty sweet. I think they can grab some corners later in the draft, it’s a pretty good year for them. Good DT’s though, especially NT’s are much more scarce this year.

10 San Francisco 49ers - Brian Orakpo DE

San Fran needed a pass rusher last year, They need a pass rusher this year. Orakpo is a real athletic talent, so he fits in well.

11 Buffalo Bills - Andre Smith - OT

I don’t think Smith is a dick head, he’s just a bit young and makes mistakes. His recent interviews have been good I heard. The Bills also have holes on the Dline but I think with TO going to Buffalo and Trent Edwards still progressing, the smartest decision would be to protect him. Don’t want to start some TO drama now.

12 Denver Broncos - Rey Maualuga LB

LB is by far their biggest need. They could’ve drafted 2 LB’s in the first round and the fans could still be happy. Rey Maualuga seems to be a big hit with a lot of teams so don’t be surprised if he goes a bit earlier than people epected.

13 Washington Redskins - Brian Cushing LB

I was surprised at how few people wanted a pass rusher here. Well, at least they wanted a LB first. Fans win.

14 New Orleans Saints - Malcolm Jenkins CB

Easy pick. Saints need a CB, Jenkins fall right into their lap. Next!

15 Houston Texans - Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells RB

Another team that wanted Maualuga. The top 3 guys on Houston draft boards were Maualuga, Wells and Vontae Davis. A smarter member pointed out the arrival of Cato June and the potential of that LB core. At corner they have Dunta Robinson they just think that he may leave next year. They also drafted a guy in the 3rd round last year. With the depth in this draft for corners, I think Wells makes the most sense.

16 San Diego Chargers - Tyson Jackson 34 DE

Oh you shoulda seen the Maualuga orgy on those boards. Good god it was too much. Too bad he’s not available here. There are a lot of guys that are against this pick, but then again they all seem to be Maualuga fans and quite honestly, a lot of them didn’t understand the importance of a 34 DE. There were still enough guys who wanted Tyson Jackson (I think he was 2nd behind Maualuga) for me to pull the trigger.

17 New York Jets - Jeremy Maclin WR

Maclin wasn’t on THAT many people’s wish lists in NY, but then again these were ‘realistic’ lists and most people didn’t expect Maclin to drop to them. A lot of fans were hoping for a WR like Hakeem Nicks instead. Quite honestly, I think if those fans were presented with this situation, they would take Maclin too. I think he was still mentioned on every 3rd list. BTW, there’s a huge love fest for Jarron Gilbert of all people. he was there on practically every big board, and they only asked for their top 3! Once again though, most of them assumed that Maclin won’t be there.

18 Denver Broncos (from Chicago) - Knowshon Moreno RB

Shanny’s gone, no more RB factory. I really doubt that Selvin Young will be good enough in Joshy’s eyes. Knowshon fills a big void.

19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Aaron Maybin 34 OLB

Apparently, Tampa’s switching to a 34. Maybin ‘dropped’ quite a bit to get here. He’s an undersized DE that dropped back into coverage well in College. Tampa fans complained about a lack of pass rush. Done deal.

20 Detroit Lions (from Dallas) - Peria Jerry DT

The reason I didn’t give Jerry to Tampa was because Jerry did not look like a 34 DE. Detroit will take him though. Happily.

21 Philadelphia Eagles - Eben Britton OT

Eagle forums were kinda crappy. I actually based this pick on what I gathered from Eagle fans here in H2H. Need an OT? Merry Christmas.

22 Minnesota Vikings - Percy Harvin WR

I read “If Harvin dropped to us, we’ll be insane not to grab him” and lots of people agreeing to that statement. If only all the picks would be this easy.

23 New England Patriots - Larry English 34 OLB

They said that they like Butler or English (I think this was based on something one of their players said). I like English as a player, I think he’ll be a good fit with the Pats.

24 Atlanta Falcons - Brandon Pettigrew TE

Matty ice wants more weapons. Pettigrew fits the bill.

25 Miami Dolphins - Vontae Davis CB

Probably the most athletically gifted corner in the draft falls to Miami who needs help in the secondary. I think Ben will like this one.

26 Baltimore Ravens - Hakeem Nicks WR

I think they would be pretty happy if they were just one spot up. WR is still a need for them though, especially with Flacco there developing.

27 Indianapolis Colts - Evander ‘Ziggy’ Hood DT

Colts need a DT. Hood is a good pass rusher with smarts and a motor. What else can the Colts ask for from a pick?

28 Philadelphia Eagles (from Carolina) - Donald Brown RB

Philly wants a complimentary back to Westbrook. Moreno would’ve been a perfect fit but he’s long gone. I say grab a back for the ever popular 1-2 punch anyways. Brown’s no Jerome Bettis, but he can still break some tackles.

29 New York Giants - Kenny Britt WR

This was a difficult pick. It was either a WR or a LB. The giants have plenty of projects at WR, but I don’t think any of them are legitimate no.1 guys. Britt doesn’t need to do that straight away, but he does have the potential to do so.

30 Tennessee Titans - Robert Ayers DL

Did I screw this one up? Ayers is dubbed the best defensive player in this draft by my boy Mike Mayock. I dunno, maybe he shoulda gone to Atl or something. The main reason he dropped is that most teams wanting a DE want a pass rusher and not a run stuffing DE. Ayers can probably create more of a pass rush than people realize, that is at least if Mayock is right. He’s not quite a 34 DE build either. Anyways, Tennessee doesn’t need him, but since when does Tennessee draft by position? His versatility should win them over

31 Arizona Cardinals - LeSean McCoy RB

Zona could surprise and take Ron Brace as their NT here, but then again, offense is their base and Edge is getting old. They don’t have a home run hitter either at RB so McCoy should fit right in.

32 Pittsburgh Steelers - Max Unger C

Versatile, smart and athletic at a position of need. Why not

There you have it, I’m open to changes btw, so hit me up if you have advice. Just for fun, here’s a few things I learned during this mock.

I learned that:

1. What revived Andre Smith’s draft stock may be more than his interviews. More people were talking about him because of his ummmm… feminine side.

2. Jarron Gilbert may very well go in the first round. There are too many people wishing for him in the 2nd. He’s not gonna last long.

3. Pass rushers are a huge commodity this year. There’s lots of them, but get them quick and don’t get too cute. Demand can still outdo supply here.

4. Aaron Curry is the safest guy in the draft and the last person that will slide on draft day.

5. There are lots more 34 teams than I remembered. It’s no longer a bad thing to be a tweener.

and finally

6. That I’ll definitely be doing this again next year smile.gif

jh

James Harrison is now a very rich man. After winning DPOY in 2008, and capping it with a 100-yard INT return in the Superbowl, the Steelers decided to reward their best linebacker. According to ESPN’s John Clayton, Harrison signed a new six year, $51M deal, with $20 million in bonuses. At 30 year old, this could ensure that he’ll finish his career as a Pittsburgh Steeler.

cassel

Breaking news from Adam Schefter and NFLN. Pats QB Matt Cassel has been traded to the KC Chiefs, no word on the compensation, but word is Pats get their 2009 second rounder and a conditional pick next year for Vrabel and Cassel. Schefter also guesses Cassel’s deal will be in the 7 year, $72M range.

UPDATE: Nothing’s official yet. Schefter just said there is another team involved and that the trade may not go through. Both the Chiefs and a “mystery team” have the framework for deals in place. If the Chiefs can’t close the deal then Cassel could use ‘team X’ for more cash. Schefter also says it’s a “surprise team”. More on this as it leaks.

UPDATE #2: It’s done. Cassel & Vrabel to Chiefs for Chiefs 2nd round pick.

By Appaloosa

Fourth Quarter Index
Now for the quantitative measure of fourth quarter ability promised at the beginning of this article. First, I reduced the data set to the 37 quarterbacks who started 125 or more games to make for a more statistically significant sample of wins and losses. Then I calculated an index based on comeback win to blown save ratio, comeback wins divided by total starts, QB ratio and points scored per start. The formula is shown below:

Index = (4QW/4QL+4QW/Starts) x QB Ratio x Pts/Start x 10

Where:
4QW = fourth quarter wins
4QL = fourth quarter losses
Pts/Start = total quarterback points divided by number of games started

The base for the index is the ratio of fourth quarter wins and blown saves, which is a good initial measure of the clutchness of a quarterback. However, some credit needed to be given for being able to have a large number of come from behind victories over the course of a career rather than a small handful of wins and losses. Therefore, the number of comeback wins divided by total starts was added to the ratio. Because this total needed to be adjusted to reflect the relative importance of the quarterback to his team, I multiplied the sum by the QB ratio and by points per start. Finally, to make the resulting index a little more user-friendly, I multiplied the total by 10, which generates a number between 10 and 100 in most cases.

The signal callers who started 125 or more games with the highest 4th Quarter indices are Peyton Manning (150.7), Jake Plummer (122.2), Joe Montana (119.2), Dan Marino (114.5), and Donovan McNabb (101.5). This list consists of two Hall of Famers, one probable and one possible future Hall of Famer, and one 4th quarter comeback specialist. The bottom five are Archie Manning (17.2), Jim Harbaugh (19.4), Jim Everett (26.0), Troy Aikman (26.5), and Dan Fouts (26.8) – an interesting grouping of two Hall of Famers and three quarterbacks who spent most of their careers struggling on bad teams. Aikman’s index is dragged down his low QB ratio and points per start, while Fouts has the worst comeback to blown save ratio of any Hall of Famer. Other indices of interest are Kerry Collins (46.0), Warren Moon (67.3), Jim Kelley (68.5), John Elway (71.3), Terry Bradshaw (72.8), Brett Favre (76.3), Steve Young (80.4), and Brad Johnson (83.4).

Comeback Kings
Quarterback Performance in the 4th Quarter 1970-2008

By Appaloosa
February 2009

Introduction
One aspect of quarterback play that really sticks in the memory of the NFL fan is the fourth quarter comeback. Nearly 20 years later, Elway’s “The Drive” is still famous. Several quarterbacks have been nicknamed “Captain Comeback” because of their fourth quarter heroics. The reputation for being “clutch” is one of the things that can get a quarterback voted into the Hall of Fame. However, there is no really quantitative way of assessing the “clutchness” of a quarterback, so the arguments over who is a comeback king versus who is merely a joker often come down to selective memory or raw totals of career comebacks. In the following article, I attempt to assign a number to the clutchness of a quarterback and try to answer some of the questions I have seen on various NFL message boards.

Before I venture into the meat of my study, I would like to mention a few caveats. As has often been stated, the glamour boy quarterbacks always get too much credit when his team wins and too much blame when the team loses. Many fourth quarter comebacks have been the result of the defense getting a timely turnover or special teams running a kick back for a touchdown. Fourth quarter losses can be due to things beyond a signal caller’s control such as fumbles by running backs or stupid penalties by the defense. Because of the scope of this study, these factors have been largely ignored. However, I believe that good luck and bad luck generally cancel each other out and that ultimately most fourth quarter comebacks and blown saves (to use a baseball term) are the responsibility of the quarterback.

Data Selection
This study of comebacks is based on the careers of all quarterbacks who entered the league after the 1970 merger and who started a minimum of 100 regular season games. Fifty-five signal-callers from Terry Bradshaw to Drew Brees meet these criteria. For each quarterback I recorded total number of starts, number of wins, number of losses, number of fourth quarter wins, number of blown saves, the number of points the quarterback contributed to his team, the total number of points scored by the team when the quarterback started, and career passer rating. All numbers are for the regular season only because most of the statistics available are for the regular season. As playoff statistics are generally kept separate from regular season statistics, including playoff statistics would have required recalculating a lot of career numbers.

For the purposes of this study fourth quarter wins were defined as victories won when the team was behind or tied at the end of the third quarter. In the case of overtime, fourth quarter efforts that tied the game followed by a victory in overtime were counted as come from behind victories. Overtime losses after game tying efforts were not counted.

Blown saves were defined as losses in which the team led at the end of the third quarter. Again, in the case of overtime, the only losses that counted against the quarterback were ones where his team blew the lead and lost in overtime.

As a rough measure of a quarterback’s contribution to the total scoring of his team, I added up each player’s career touchdown passes and rushing touchdowns and multiplied the result by 7. This number was compared to the total number of points scored by the quarterback’s team in each game in started. As described below, these numbers were used in an attempt to identify which quarterbacks were most responsible for their team’s success instead of being mainly game managers.

By the Numbers
Currently the titleholder for most fourth quarter comebacks in a career is Dan Marino with 33 based on the definition given above. Marino is followed by Warren Moon and Peyton Manning (28 each), Jake Plummer (24), and John Elway and Vinny Testaverde (23 each). The quarterback with the fewest fourth quarter comebacks to date is Kurt Warner with 6 followed by Bobby Hebert (7) and Archie Manning, Jim Everett, Richard Todd, and Matt Hasselbeck with 8 each.

The player with a minimum of 100 career starts with the fewest blown saves is Tom Brady with only a single regular season blown save to his name. Tied for second place are Neil O’Donnell and Kurt Warner with 4. Dan Pastonini, Joe Theismann, and Jake Plummer each had 9 career blown saves. The all time champion for career blown saves was Vinny Testaverde with 30, followed by Boomer Esiason with 26. Dan Fouts, Warren Moon, and Drew Bledsoe are tied for third with 24 a piece.

The Lion King’s Three Round Mock Draft (1/28/09)

ROUND 1

Detroit
Matt Stafford, QB

St. Louis
Eugene Monroe, LT

Kansas City
Brian Orakpo, DE

Seattle
Andre Smith, OL

Cleveland
Everette Brown, OLB

Cincinnati
Jason Smith, LT

Oakland
Micheal Crabtree, WR

Jacksonville
Aaron Curry, LB

Green Bay
Michael Oher, LT

San Francisco
Malcolm Jenkins, CB

Buffalo
Brandon Pettigrew, TE

Denver
Busari Raji, NT

Washington
Aaron Maybin, DE

New Orleans
Alphonso Smith, CB

Houston
Vontae Davis, DB

San Diego
Chris Wells, TB

New York Jets
Tyson Jackson, DE

Chicago
Mark Sanchez, QB

Tampa Bay
Michael Johnson, DE

Detroit
Peria Jerry, DT

Philadelphia
Shawn Nelson, TE

Minnesota
Eben Britton, OT

New England
Brian Cushing, LB

Atlanta
Rey Maualuga, LB

Miami
Sean Smith, DB

Baltimore
Jeremy Maclin, WR

Indianapolis
DJ Moore, CB

Philadelphia
Phil Loadholt, OT

New York Giants
Sen’Derrick Marks, DT

Tennessee
Alex Mack, C

Pittsburgh
Herman Johnson, OL

Arizona
Knowshon Moreno, RB

ROUND 2

Detroit
Robert Ayers, DE

Kansas City
Duke Robinson, OG

St. Louis
Darius Butler, CB

Cleveland
Fili Moala, DE

Seattle
Lesean McCoy, RB

Cincinnati
Chase Coffman, TE

Jacksonville
William Beatty, OT

Oakland
Max Unger, OL

Green Bay
Rashad Johnson, S

Buffalo
Keenan Lewis, CB

San Francisco
Josh Freeman, QB

Miami
Clay Matthews, OLB

New York Giants
Kenny Britt, WR

Houston
Chip Vaughn, S

New England
Clint Sintim, OLB

Denver
Louis Delmas, S

Chicago
Darius Heyward Bey, WR

Tampa Bay
Percy Harvin, WR

Dallas
Patrick Chung, S

New York Jets
Hakeem Nicks, WR

Philadelphia
William Moore, S

Minnesota
Victor Harris, CB

Atlanta
Ron Brace, NT

Miami
Ramses Barden, WR

Baltimore
Larry English, OLB

New England
Jeremiah Johnson, RB

Carolina
Paul Kruger, DE

New York Giants
Emanuel Cook, S

Indianapolis
Terrence Taylor, NT

Tennessee
James Laurinaitis, ILB

Pittsburgh
Evander Hood, DE

Arizona
Kraig Urbik, OG

Round 3

Detroit
Nic Harris, OLB

St. Louis
Andy Levitre, OG

Kansas City
Marcus Freeman, OLB

Seattle
Brian Robiskie, WR

Dallas
Darry Beckwith, ILB

Cincinnati
Mike Mickens, CB

Oakland
Kyle Moore, DE

Jacksonville
Donald Brown, RB

Green Bay
Antoine Caldwell, C

San Francisco
Derrick Williams, WR

Buffalo
Gerald McRath, OLB

NY Jets
Scott McKillop, ILB

Houston
Tyrone McKenzie, OLB

San Diego
Connor Barwin, OLB

Denver
Shonn Greene, RB

Washington
Jamon Meredith, OT

Tampa Bay
Alex Boone, OT

Detroit
Kevin Barnes, CB

Green Bay
Matt Shaughnessy, DE

Chicago
Zack Follett, OLB

Philadelphia
Jairus Byrd, CB

Minnesota
Rhett Bomar, QB

Miami
Micheal Hamlin, S

Baltimore
Jarron Gilbert, DE

New England
Ellis Lankster, CB

Atlanta
Travis Beckum, TE

New York Giants
Andre Brown, RB

Indianapolis
Kaluka Maiava, OLB

Carolina
Jonathan Casillas, OLB

Tennessee
Juaquin Iglesias, WR

Pittsburgh
Jasper Brinkley, ILB

Arizona
Cody Brown, OLB

Teams on the Good this week generally fit one of two categories: they either won games they had to win or they won so overwhelmingly they could not be denied. There are two exceptions that played very well against teams in the playoff hunt when they could have just shrugged their shoulders and packed up their stuff.

The Falcons and Panthers are left off largely because they were only playing for position. They both won, but the performances were not overwhelming enough to justify inclusion. It could be argued with some validity that the Vikings performance was no different. The difference is they thought they were in a must-win when they managed to pull it off. The Falcons should have killed the Rams and had the Panthers played at all in the fourth quarter they would have made it.

The lower-tiers are also largely teams that pissed away their playoff chances, with the exceptions of Cleveland and Tennessee, who were both too awful to go unnoticed.

The Good

Baltimore – Needing only a home win against the Jags to secure an AFC wild card, the Ravens rolled to 21 second quarter points and 431 yards while capturing four Jag turnovers. In fact, the Ravens scored on four consecutive sustained drives in the middle two quarters to turn this into a Good win and a playoff berth.

Houston – Playing to avoid a losing season, the Texans killed any chance the Bears had of playing next week by amassing over 450 yards, holding the ball for over 37 minutes and overcoming a ten-point deficit in the middle of the second quarter. The offense scored 31 points against the Bears in the final two and one half quarters of play. A Good win puts them at 8-8.

Indianapolis – Despite the fact that this game meant nothing and the opponent played like it, the magnitude of the domination lands the Colts here. They out gained the Titans over 3:1 en route to a shutout, that’s right, a shutout win.

Miami – Give the Dolphins a slot on the Good for taking care of business. They traded blows evenly with the Jets in the Meadowlands, but took advantage of three interceptions, one returned for a second quarter touchdown, a fumble recovery and controlled the clock for almost 34 minutes. It was not a dominating performance, but an opportune one that yielded a Good result and an AFCE title.

Minnesota – The Vikings made this list primarily because they won a game they thought they had to win to lock up the NFCN and make the playoffs. Sure, the Bears lost later, but the Vikings did their part and won it rather than backing in. They also made a couple of huge plays in the process to produce touchdowns. Combine that with coming back from a nine point deficit with ten minutes remaining and this was Good, but it will take better to beat these same Giants if they meet in the playoffs.

New England – While the Patriots are done for the year, it was not due to their own efforts Sunday. In absurdly windy conditions, the Pats wisely only threw eight passes. With field goals assuming the difficulty of rocket science due to the winds, the Pats allowed the Bills into the red zone only once, and then allowed Buffalo buffoonery to expire the first half clock before they could attempt to launch a rocket. A Good win in some bad conditions, albeit too little, too late.

Oakland – Let’s give the Raiders some credit for playing a good game on the road against a team who was playing for a playoff berth. The Raiders played more like a 10-6 team than one who scrambled to post a 5-11.

Philadelphia – I’ll thoroughly berate the Cowboys part in this later, but it was the Eagles who inflicted a butt whipping of epic proportion. Other than the score, there is little to actually quantify how bad this was. Since the Eagles scored on two Cowboys possessions, the offensive numbers look pretty even. But give Reid credit, the Eagles ran roughly five of every eight plays, one omen to their success. They broke the game open in the final 2:15 of the first half, and outscored the team from Ringling Brothers 41-0 in the middle two quarters. In what amounted to a playoff game for the final NFC spot, this was a performance beyond Good.

Pittsburgh – See the Indianapolis paragraph. The Steelers out gained the Browns almost 3:1 and gave up a whopping 20 yards net passing. It didn’t mean much, but it sure was one-sided.

San Diego – As nonexistent as the Denver defense is, the Bolts still put up 52 points. With their playoff hopes on the line for the fourth consecutive week, San Diego amassed nearly 500 yards and scored early and often to lock up the AFCW. They consistently dominated this game in a Good win.

The Bad

Chicago – Needing a win to have any chance and up by ten in the middle of the second quarter, the Bears were then outscored 31-7 until a late, desperate drive. The defense gave up yards by the ton and the offense did too little to stem the tide. The result was an underwhelming performance in a clutch game.

Tampa Bay – In hindsight, they had the playoffs in their own hands when they took the home field against the Raiders. They seemed to have things going their way, up by 10 3:30 into the fourth quarter, having just converted a Raider turnover into a TD. They might as well have left the field after that, committing a 43-yard pass interference penalty to set up a Raider touchdown, then a 67 yard run and finally a 10-play, 56-yard drive that led to a FG, but more importantly ate nearly six of the remaining seven minutes of what was a four point game. The offense did little to curb that onslaught, failing on a fourth and three and tossing up an interception on the first play of a possession. They weren’t Bad all game long (or they would have been Ugly), but they were Bad and it cost them a playoff berth.

The Ugly
Cleveland -The Browns ended the season in style, not scoring an offensive touchdown or in any other manner. Eight first downs on offense, only 126 yards while watching the Steelers ring up almost 370. The Browns missed a 53-yard FG on their opening drive and did not touch Steeler territory the rest of the game. An Ugly end to an Ugly season.

Dallas – With 2:15 to go in the first half, the Eagles were threatening, already leading 10-3. Yet, the score at halftime was not 10-3, 13-3 or even 17-3, but 27-3. Two late turnovers contributed to the end-of-half meltdown. That was a preview of things to come. The Cowboys had the first three possessions of the second half before Philly ran an offense play. This remarkable feat was accomplished by turning the ball over on the first two possessions and watching them returned for touchdowns. Both turnovers capped drives into scoring position. They turned it over on the third possession, as well, but the Eagle defense was too tired by that point to return that for a TD. By the time the clowns, uh, Cowboys stopped pouring out of the Volkswagen, they had committed five turnovers resulting in 27 Eagle points, 17 of which were posted without the Eagles offense taking the field. To punctuate the circus act, the Cowboys opted for a field goal midway through the fourth quarter down by 44-3, cutting it to a five possession game. This was a horrid performance with their playoff hopes on the line, perhaps the Ugliest single performance of the year by anyone.

Denver – The Broncos were only slightly better than Dallas. As usual, Denver showed a pulse on offense but their defense could not stop the Chargers. It was the usual, tired formula where the Broncs amassed over 400 yards of offense but there “bend and then break” defense gave up almost 500, nearly 290 on the ground. Add a 13:00 time of possession difference and the Broncs could make a case for playing in the Big 12. Not quite as Ugly as the Cowboys, but it should be mentioned in that same discussion.

Tennessee – It’s tempting to cut the Titans some slack since they didn’t need Good, Bad or even Ugly, just no injuries. Still, eight first downs, 125 yards of offense, 390 yards against and almost a 17-minute time of possession difference is pretty Ugly regardless. Let’s put it this way, the performance was similar to that of the Browns.