Bustology – Quarterbacks
By Appaloosa
March 2006 (Revised March 2007)
Bustology – a Definition
Every year between the Combine and the Draft past draft prospects are remembered and compared with the current crop. In retrospect some are assessed as successes and others as busts, but until now there has been no quantitative measure of “bustitude”. A quantitative measure of relative quality allows players to be assessed objectively instead of subjectively as in the past. The patented Comprehensive Bust Rating (CBR) system provides an objective method for comparing the relative bustitide of quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers from 1970 to the present.
This article on quarterbacks is the first in a series that will determine the biggest bust in each of the three high-profile offensive specialist positions and ultimately crown the king of busts. Further articles will also explore which universities have the best history of producing duds and which teams have drafted the most and biggest losers.
Introduction
The term “bust” is almost as overused as “superstar.” Virtually any player who was drafted early in the first round who does not at least make the Pro Bowl seems to be labeled a bust. But in many cases those who declare that a particular player is a bust may be basing their conclusion on exaggerated expectations, unfavorable comparison with a player from the same draft who had a better career, or a short memory. The following series of articles is an attempt to make an unbiased assessment of busts unfiltered by the opinions of others or the passage of time. Although there have been plenty of busts on defense and the less specialized offensive positions, only quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers amass sufficient numbers to allow their careers to be compared statistically. Therefore the bust rating system is limited to offensive specialists. In addition, only first round draft picks were assessed. By definition a bust is someone of whom greatness is expected but who falls woefully short. Greatness is generally only expected of first-round picks, so anyone picked in the second round or after was off the hook.
Although the CBR can only be applied to offensive specialists, the construction of the ranking allows quarterbacks to be compared with running backs and running backs with wide receivers. This is because the ratings, which are calculated from formulas specific to each position, are all based on the mean and standard deviation of four different statistics for first round draft picks whose careers ended prior to the start of the 2006 season. All four statistics are given equal weight in calculating the CBR, which decreases the influence of any one factor and increases the comparability of players of different positions. The CBR for a player whose career was average for a first round pick would be zero; a player whose statistics were a standard deviation worse than the average would have a CBR of 100, and a player whose statistics were a standard deviation better than the average would have a CBR of –100. The formulas were devised based only on drafts in which all first round picks had completed their careers but they have been applied to active players who began their NFL careers as recently as 2003. Although the CBR was invented to assess the degree of failure, a negative CBR correlates very well with success, and some significant examples have been included for comparison.
Busts by Reputation
The debate over the greatest bust in NFL draft history almost always seems to come down to a quarterback, which may not be fair. Because the quarterback is the most visible member of a team and because quarterbacking a NFL team is the most difficult job in sports, quarterbacks are most commonly mentioned as spectacular busts. For example, a few years ago the staff and the viewers of ESPN agreed that Ryan Leaf was the biggest bust of the last 25 years – not just in the NFL, but in all of sports. There is no doubt that Leaf was a bust of epic proportions, but whether he was the biggest of all time is open to debate. It is likely that part of the reason that Leaf is such an infamous dud is because: 1) he was drafted immediately after and was believed by some so-called experts to be a better NFL prospect than one of the biggest names in the game today, 2) he made himself unpopular with the media who took revenge by gleefully reporting every error he committed, and 3) Leaf’s actions are recent history, allowing earlier busts to be forgotten. The CBR system cuts through all these mitigating factors and assesses each bust candidate solely on his merits (or lack thereof) on the field.
Development of the QB CBR
Development of the quarterback CBR began with surveying the list of quarterbacks selected in the first round of the draft since 1970. The list of first round quarterbacks was split into two groups based on the year they were drafted. Anyone drafted prior to 1993 was placed in the retired division, and anyone drafted 1993 to 2003 was placed in the active group. This was because 1993 is the earliest draft in which a first round quarterback (Drew Bledsoe) amassed significant statistics in 2006. Vinnie Testaverde was included in the retired list because he played very sparingly in 2006. Although first-round quarterbacks drafted as recently as 1999 are no longer in the league, including prematurely retired (and therefore generally bad) players to the retired list would skew the data.
Once the subjects had been divided into the two groups, the following raw statistics were collected for each quarterback: 1) draft position, 2) number of games played, 3) career passing yards, 4) career attempts, 5) career completions, 6) career touchdown passes, and 7) career interceptions. These data were used to calculate: 1) completion percentage, 2) yards per attempt, 3) touchdowns per attempt, 4) interceptions per attempt, and 5) passer rating. Within the retired group of 40 quarterbacks from Terry Bradshaw to Tommy Maddox, the mean and standard deviation were calculated for all the statistics listed above. Representative career means for a first round quarterback drafted between 1970 and 1992 are 103 games played, 17,640 passing yards, 53.6 percent completions, 105 career touchdowns, 101 career interceptions, and a career passer rating of 66.74. However, not all of these statistics are useful for determining the quality of a quarterback’s career, especially for determining the degree of “bustitude”. For example, raw interceptions are useless because a bad quarterback does not last long enough to throw a large number of picks compared to a quarterback who played for a normal-length career. The interceptions per attempt statistic was not used because this value has dropped significantly since the 1970’s, and could not be used to compare quarterbacks from different eras. As interceptions per attempt is one of the factors in passer rating, career passer rating was also deleted from formula used to calculate the CBR. However, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and completion percentage were all good indicators of quarterback quality and have remained relatively constant among starting quarterbacks for the past 30 years. In addition, career length, in number of games played, is a good indicator of a quarterback’s success. All four of these statistics were given approximately equal weight in calculating a raw CBR. Then a final variable factor was added to the CBR for all offensive specialists. This factor is based on the player’s draft position and increases on a logarithmic scale the higher in the draft he was selected. This factor was added to account for the greater expectations that are accorded to high first round picks. In the discussion below, this factor is referred to as the “rank bonus.”
For those who are interested, the quarterback CBR formula is: 100((5(0.5354-(C/A)))+(((6.55-(Y/A))/2)+(20(0.036-(T/A)))+((105-G)/270)+((1/P)/5)), where:
A = Attempts
C = Completions
G = Games
P = Draft position
T = Touchdowns
Y = Yards
Anti-Bust Quarterbacks
Before exploring the quarterback busts, it might be interesting to calculate the CBR values for successful players to use to compare against the busts and to calibrate the forumla. CBRs of less than –100 (the ultimate first-round anti-busts) were recorded for Jim Kelly (-124) and Dan Marino (-148) from the retired list and Peyton Manning (-145), and Daunte Culpepper (-130) from the active list. Of those four, only Culpepper is not Hall of Fame caliber, and his low CBR is the result of exceptionally high completion percentage and yards per attempt, probably due to throwing to Randy Moss early in his career. Other CBRs that readers may find interesting for non-busts are –73 for Terry Bradshaw, -75 for Phil Simms, -83 for John Elway, -61 for Troy Aikman, -73 for Steve McNair, and –47 for Donovan McNabb. These CBRs include the rank bonus, so the CBRs of first overall picks are 20 points higher than the raw CBR.
Lesser Busts
Having dismissed the anti-busts from consideration, it is time to give out dishonorable mentions to some of the dogs in this show. These individuals were noted busts in their day, but their stats were not execrable enough to make the Hall of Shame. Please give a round of applause for Todd Blackledge who was drafted 20 spots ahead of Dan Marino and produced 29 touchdowns, 83 interceptions, and a CBR of 84. Todd Marinovich wasn’t such a horrible quarterback by his stats. After all, he completed more than 50% of his passes and threw only one more pick than touchdown pass, but due to drugs and trouble with the law, his career amounted to a grand total of 8 NFL games and a CBR of 42. Andre Ware’s stats (37 CBR) were even a bit better than Marinovich’s in spite of his reputation as a classic bust. But like another quarterback who is currently working his way up the bust scale, he had the misfortune to be drafted by the Lions. Remember Rick Mirer? Seven different teams thought they could recall the glory days of his college career, but the end result was a CBR of 76. Heath Shuler was considered a favorite for best in show until he was surpassed by Ryan Leaf. But in spite of completing less than 50% of his passes, Shuler’s CBR is a mere 92, which isn’t quite good enough for the pantheon of immortals of bustitude. Tim Couch gets an occasional mention as a bust, but even with the maximum rank bonus that goes with being the first overall pick, his CBR is actually 3, which means that he was an average first-round quarterback. His only real claim to bustitude is that he does not compare well with other quarterbacks picked first overall, although his CBR is still better than that of Michael Vick (14) or David Carr (16).
Mega Busts
Now for the stars of this whole composition – the busts of truly epic proportions. First the nominees:
1. Jerry Tagge, 1972, averaged 0.0107 touchdown per attempt
2. Steve Pisarkeiwicz, 1977, completed 44.8% of his passes
3. Art Schlichter, 1982, averaged less than 5 yards per attempt
4. Kelly Stoufer, 1987, threw 7 touchdowns in 22 appearances
5. Dan McGuire, 1991, averaged 0.0136 touchdowns per attempt
6. Jim Druckenmiller, 1997, one (1!) career touchdown pass
7. Ryan Leaf, 1998, completed 48.4% of his passes
8. Akili Smith, 1999, a very impressive 0.0108 touchdowns per attempt
Now that the nominees are in, let us examine each in order of ascending CBR. Ryan Leaf, thanks for stopping by. We know you have the reputation, but a CBR of 140 just isn’t going to cut it in this crowd. Kelly Stoufer, you can return to obscurity with a CBR of 143. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a tie for fourth runner up. Jerry Tagge and Steve Pisarkeiwicz, your efforts have earned you each a CBR of 154. Commendable, but no cigar. Nice try, Dan McGuire, but a rating of 168 isn’t even good enough for second runner up. You can pick up your certificate on the way out the door.
Three quarterbacks remain, each distinguished in his own special way. How can one decide between three such spectacular disappointments? Each of these gentlemen averaged less than 5 yards an attempt, threw fewer than 0.02 touchdowns per attempt, and completed considerably less than 50% of his passes. It requires a supreme effort to standout in such company and be crowned the king of the busts. In the Olympic spirit (2008 being just around the corner), I award the bronze medal to Art Schlichter from THE Ohio State University whose all around lack of performance earned him a 200 CBR. Our silver medallist is Akili Smith from the University of Oregon with a very impressive CBR of 208. But the gold medal and the coveted title of greatest quarterback bust of all time belongs to none other than Jim Druckenmiller of Virginia Tech who overcame the handicap of being only the 26th pick of the 1997 draft to achieve a phenomenal CBR of 232. Only record lows for a first round quarterback in completion percentage and yards per attempt won out over nearly equally horrendous performances by higher draft picks. “Druck” appeared in a total of 8 games for the 49ers and was last seen playing for the Memphis Maniax of the XFL. One good bust deserves another.
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