March 2006 (Revised April 2007)
For more information on the initial development of the Comprehensive Bust Rating (CBR), see Bustology 1 – Quarterbacks.
Development of the RB CBR
Development of the running back CBR began with surveying the list of running backs selected in the first round of the draft since 1970. The list of first round running backs was split into two groups based on the year they were drafted. Anyone drafted prior to 1994 was placed in the retired division, and anyone drafted 1994 to 2003 was placed in the active group. This was because 1994 is the earliest draft in which a first round running back (Marshall Faulk) was still officially active in 2006. Although first-round running backs drafted as recently as 2002 are no longer in the league, including prematurely retired (and therefore mostly bad) players to the retired list would skew the data.
Once the subjects had been divided into the two groups, the following raw statistics were assembled for each running back: 1) draft position, 2) number of games played, 3) career rushing yards, 4) career rushing attempts, 5) career touchdowns, and 6) total career yards (rushing and receiving). These data were used to calculate: 1) yards per attempt, 2) touchdowns per attempt, and 3) total yards per game. The mean and standard deviation were calculated for all the raw and calculated statistics listed above within the retired group of 105 running backs from Larry Stegent to Robert Smith. Representative career means for a first round running back drafted between 1970 and 1993 are 91 games played, 3,892 rushing yards, 28 career touchdowns, 3.9 yards per attempt, and 51 total yards per game. However, not all statistics are useful for determining the quality of a running back’s career, especially for determining the degree of “bustitude”. For example, the difference in yards per attempt between a great running back (for example Barry Sanders at 5 yard per attempt) and a bad one (Curtis Ennis at 3.2 yards per attempt) is so small that the statistic is useless for determining running back quality. Career touchdowns is another statistic that could not be used, in this case because the standard deviation is larger than the mean, with the result that in order to receive the maximum CBR, a running back would have to have scored negative touchdowns. Statistics that are useful for determining running back quality are career rushing yards, touchdowns per attempt, and total yards (rushing and receiving) per game. In addition, career length, in number of games played, is a good indicator of a running back’s success. All four of these statistics were given approximately equal weight in calculating a raw CBR. Then a final variable factor was added to the CBR for all offensive specialists. This factor is based on the player’s draft position and increases on a logarithmic scale the higher in the draft he was selected. This factor was added to account for the greater expectations that are accorded to high first round picks. In the discussion below, this factor is referred to as the “rank bonus.”
For those who are interested, the running back CBR formula is: 100(((3,800-R)/20,000)+(((51.5-(Y/G))/100)+(20(0.0288-(T/A)))+((91-G)/200)+((1/P)/5)), where:
A = Attempts
G = Games
P = Draft position
R = Career Rushing Yards
T = Touchdowns
Y = Total Yards (rushing and receiving)
Anti-Bust Running Backs
Once the running back CBR formula was devised, it was applied to the running backs in both the retired and the active lists. CBRs of less than –100 (the ultimate first-round anti-busts) were recorded for John Riggins (-115), Franco Harris (-117), Otis Armstrong (-126), Walter Payton (-169), Tony Dorsett (-113), Ottis Anderson (-103), Charles Alexander (-111), Marcus Allen (-157), Eric Dickerson (-121), Barry Sanders (-156), Emmitt Smith (-200), and Jerome Bettis (-120) from the retired list and Marshall Faulk (-140), Edgerrin James (-105), Shaun Alexander (-115), and LaDainian Tomlinson (-140) from the active list. Riggins, Harris, Payton, Dorsett, Allen, Dickerson, and Sanders are already in the Hall of Fame, and others on this list are likely to follow. The only Hall of Fame running back who did not have an CBR less than –100 was Earl Campbell, whose CBR was –67, including the 20-point maximum rank bonus. Other CBRs that readers may find interesting for non-busts are –81 for Chuck Muncie, -74 for Gerald Riggs, -37 for Robert Smith, -85 for Eddie George, -73 for Warrick Dunn, –62 for Ricky Williams, and -85 for Larry Johnson. Bo Jackson’s CBR was 16, due to the rank bonus for being the first overall pick and to the brevity of his career.
Lesser Busts
There are quite a few running backs whose names are mentioned when the subject turns to busts but don’t quite have the numbers to make a major splash in the world of bustitude. Maybe you remember Alonzo Highsmith who was drafted third overall by the Oilers and gave them all of 7 touchdowns and a CBR of 67? No? How about D.J. Dozier from Penn State (CBR = 46)? Or what about Blair Thomas, also of Penn State (CBR = 71), picked second overall by the Jets?
Some famous running back duds of recent years are not quite as high up on the scale as you might think. Lawrence Phillips had a CBR of 38, Curtis Ennis scored an 80, and Ron Dayne currently holds a CBR of 25.
Mega Busts
Now that the lesser busts have been dismissed from consideration, the time has come to pay tribute to the giants of bustitude. First the nominees:
1. Larry Stegent, 1970, a grand total of 12 yards for his career
2. Joe Moore, 1971, 23 games – zero TDs
3. Bill Thomas, 1972, averaged 1.5 yards per game
4. David Overstreet, 1981, one touchdown in 14 games
5. Booker Moore, 1981, scored one touchdown in 51 games
6. John Avery, 1998, 0.0134 touchdowns per rushing attempt
Now that the nominees are in, it’s time to examine each in order of ascending CBR. Running back busts just aren’t what they used to be. The most recent mega bust, John Avery had a CBR of 108, which pales in comparison with those who preceded him. Future running backs will have to try harder if they hope to rival the busts who have gone before. David Overstreet put forth a valiant effort after being selected 13th overall by the Dolphins. In his 14-game NFL career, he amassed a CBR of 111. His draft classmate, Booker Moore (from Penn State, of course) had a longer career, but his lack of production earned him a rating of 113.
The contest is down to the final three and the suspense is palpable. Which of these distinguished running backs will be crowned the greatest bust of his position since 1970? First, the second runner up – Joe Moore (what is it about running backs named Moore?) who distinguished himself by producing not a single score in two years with the Bears and a CBR of 149.
The Cowboys have had a history of drafting well, but in 1972, they pulled a boner by the name of Bill Thomas with the last pick of the first round. This gentleman had no attempts for no yards and caught a grand total of zero passes in his one year with “America’s Team” before he was allowed to leave for Houston. He had the most productive season of his career with the Oilers when he actually gained positive yardage and caught his single career pass. He followed up this performance by playing an entire year for the Chiefs in 1974 and amassing a total of –3 yards. Mercifully he and his 159 CBR were out of the league the following year. Surprisingly, there was a first round pick running back whose career was even worse than that of Thomas, and that leads to the moment for which you have all been waiting – the crowning of the running back king of busts. Not only was Larry Stegent the first running back drafted after the merger, but he was also the worst. After being taken 8th overall in the 1970 draft by the Cardinals, he did not see the field for the entire season. In 1971, he had his single moment in the sun as an NFL player. He caught a pass for 12 yards and then faded once more into obscurity. For this performance, which is about as bad as possible for a running back, he achieved an impressive CBR of 171. However, one supposes he should be grateful that three quarterbacks actually had worse CBRs than his.
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