Bustology – Wide Receivers
By Appaloosa
April 2006 (Revised April 2007)
For more information on the development of the Comprehensive Bust Rating (CBR), see Bustology 1 – Quarterbacks.
Development of the WR CBR
Development of the wide receiver CBR began with surveying the list of wide receivers selected in the first round of the draft since 1970. The list of first round wide receivers was split into two groups based on the year they were drafted. Anyone drafted prior to 1994 was placed in the retired division, and anyone drafted 1994 to 2002 was placed in the active group. This was because 1995 is the earliest draft in which a first round wide receiver (Joey Galloway) saw significant playing time in 2006. Although first-round wide receivers drafted as recently as 2001 are no longer in the league, prematurely retired (and therefore mostly bad) players were not added to the retired list because they would skew the data.
Once the subjects had been divided into the two groups, the following raw statistics were recorded for each wide receiver: 1) draft position, 2) number of games played, 3) career receiving yards, 4) career receptions, and 5) career touchdowns. These data were used to calculate: 1) yards per reception, 2) touchdowns per reception, and 3) receptions per game. Within the retired group of 67 wide receivers from Ken Burrough to Derrick Alexander, the mean and standard deviation were determined for all the raw and calculated statistics listed above. Representative career means for a first round wide receiver drafted between 1970 and 1994 are 116 games played, 5,276 receiving yards, 34 career touchdowns, and 3 receptions per game. However, not all statistics are useful for determining the quality of a wide receiver’s career, especially for determining the degree of “bustitude”. For example, yards per catch is a statistic that could not be used because the standard deviation is larger than the mean, which means that in order to receive the maximum CBR, a wide receiver would have to have negative yards per catch. Other statistics, such as career receptions and touchdowns are too dependent on career length and other statistics that would limit the independence of each aspect of the ranking. The statistics that were chosen for determining wide receiver bustitude are career receiving yards, touchdowns per catch, and receptions per game. In addition, career length, in number of games played, is a good indicator of a wide receiver’s success. All four of these statistics were given approximately equal weight in calculating a raw CBR. Then a final variable factor was added to the CBR for all offensive specialists. This factor is based on the player’s draft position and increases on a logarithmic scale the higher in the draft he was selected. This factor was added to account for the greater expectations that are accorded to high first round picks. In the discussion below, this factor is referred to as the “rank bonus.”
For those who are interested, the wide receiver CBR formula is: 100(((116-G)/200)+(2.5(0.0964-(T/R)))+((2.992-(R/G))/13)+((5,267-Y)/17,500)+((1/P)/5)), where:
G = Games
P = Draft position
R = Receptions
T = Touchdowns
Y = Total Receiving Yards
Anti-Bust Wide Receivers
Once the wide receiver CBR formula was devised, it was applied to the wide receivers in both the retired and the active lists. CBRs of less than –100 (the ultimate first-round anti-busts) were recorded for James Lofton (-108), Jerry Rice (-217), and Tim Brown (-130) from the retired list. Lofton is already in the Hall of Fame, and Rice and Brown should be joining him in the next few years. The only active wide receiver with CBRs less than –100 is Marvin Harrison with a current CBR of –103. Other CBRs that readers may find interesting for non-busts are –77 for Stanley Morgan, -13 for Lynn Swann, -99 for Art Monk, -96 for Irving Fryar, -64 for Michael Irvin, -74 for Andre Rison, -46 for Keyshawn Johnson, –69 for Randy Moss, and –51 for Torry Holt.
Lesser Busts
Wide receiver busts seem to have been less spectacular in the past than quarterback and running back busts. Most of those who accumulated respectable CBRs are long forgotten except by the fans of the teams who drafted them and have long memories. Here are a few examples: Elmo Wright, drafted by the Chiefs in 1971 and averaged 1.3 receptions per game and achieved a CBR of 73, an even better dud was Terry Beasley who scored 3 touchdowns in his career and a 89 CBR, and Randy Burke drafted by the Colts in 1977 and only 30 career receptions. One year that was especially bad for wide receivers in the draft was 1973, which produced classic busts such as Steve Holden (79 CBR), Darryl Stingley (also 79 CBR), and Barry Smith (77 CBR). 1992 was an even worse year for drafting wide receivers with such gems as Anthony Hancock (74 CBR), Lindsay Scott (93 CBR), and Perry Tuttle (84 CBR).
The names of some of the more recent lesser wide receiver busts might be more familiar. For example, Rae Carruth’s CBR is 83. Kevin Dyson was drafted five spots ahead of Randy Moss, but has a CBR of 45. Peter Warrick has established himself as a minor dud with a CBR of 40, but he is far from the worst wide receiver drafted in 2000. There will be more on R.J. Soward below, but Sylvester Morris should not be forgotten since he achieved a rating of 85.
Mega Busts
Unlike quarterbacks and running backs, wide receivers do not seem to bust out quite as spectacularly, though it is interesting to note that most of the wide receiver mega busts have played in the last decade. Only four first round pick wide receivers have accumulated the statistics worthy of a mega bust, and even their bustitude pales in comparison with the great busts among the other offensive specialists. For example, the fourth biggest wide receiver bust of all time was R.J. Soward whose CBR of 102 would only place him 11th on the list of quarterbacks and 7th among running backs.
The three remaining candidates for biggest wide receiver bust since 1970 have much in common. Each caught fewer than 20 receptions in his career, and none of those catches were for touchdowns. All three played for major college football powers in their day and were drafted in the second half of the first round but their NFL careers were disasters. Yatil Green played for the Hurricanes and then stayed in Miami for what passed for a pro career. In 9 games he caught a grand total of 18 passes for 234 yards and a CBR of 115. There’s little to choose between Green and the runner up, Johnny Rodgers who was selected by the Chargers out of Nebraska. Although Rodgers lasted for 17 games, he only caught an average of one pass per game and coincidentally had the same number of yards as Green. Because he caught fewer passes per game, Rodgers has a slightly higher CBR – 118.
And now to crown the king of wide receiver busts. Marcus Nash played for “Wide Receiver U” and looked pretty good catching balls from Peyton Manning. The Broncos apparently thought he would look just as good snagging passes from an aging John Elway and selected him with the last pick of the first round in 1998. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Nash turned out to be a spectacular bust. In an entire NFL career of 7 games he caught all of 4 passes for 76 yards and his CBR was 128. The irony of Nash’s career is that this loser has two Super Bowl rings, which is one of the reasons why Super Bowls were not factored into the CBR. Now Nash is playing for the Dallas Desperados of the AFL, hoping for a return to the NFL, but that doesn’t seem likely.
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