Bustology – Schools
By Appaloosa
April 2006
For more information on the development of the Comprehensive Bust Rating (CBR), see Bustology 1 – Quarterbacks.
Rating the Universities
It is not fair to draw conclusions about the quality of offensive specialists from a school based on the performance of one or two players selected in the first round. Any university or college that produced fewer than three first round quarterbacks, running backs, or wide receivers between 1970 and 2002 were not included in the analysis. For the 39 schools remaining, the adjusted CBR for each offensive specialist was added and averaged to provide information on which universities provide the best first round values and which produce the biggest duds.
In case you were wondering, the University of Miami (The “U”) had the most total offensive specialists (13) drafted in the first round between 1970 and 2002. Next most, with 12 each, are Florida, Penn State, and Tennessee. Eight running backs were drafted from Penn State, which is the highest number at that position. To paraphrase Samuel Johnson, this is another instance of the triumph of hope over experience. The college team that produced more first round wide receivers was the Tennessee Volunteers with eight of widely varying quality. Oregon, UNCL, and Washington State each had three quarterbacks selected in the first round.
The lowest total for any university was –276 for Pittsburgh, largely thanks to Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino and the fact that no huge ex-Panther busts have been drafted since 1970. However, the prize for the lowest average goes Syracuse University, alma mater of Ark Monk, Marvin Harrison, and Donovan McNabb, all of whom have CBRs well into the negatives.
But you aren’t reading this article because you are interested in finding out which colleges have turned out successful NFL offensive talent. You want to know about the failures. The award for the highest CBR total is Texas A&M with a score of 310. Although only Larry Stegent is the only truly epic Aggie dud, the total was helped along by the likes of Bubba Bean and Rodger Vick. Texas A&M is doing a commendable job in producing so many busts, especially since all of them are running backs. I guess one conclusion that can be drawn is that you should hope your favorite team never selects a running back from Texas A&M in the first round.
The highest average for any university belongs to Nebraska and Oregon, which tied with a mean of 59. Nebraska earned this dishonor on the strength of Johnny Rodgers and Jerry Tagge. The Cornhuskers should be grateful that Irving Fryar was such a success or Nebraska would have beaten Texas A&M for a title no one much wants. As for the ex-Ducks, who could forget Akili Smith, though I am sure the Bengals would like to? Joey Harrington has also made his contribution to the cause.
A few universities other than Nebraska and Texas A&M deserve dishonorable mentions for the number of busts they have imposed on the NFL. Of the seven first round running backs and wide receivers that came from the University of Colorado, not a single one achieved a negative CBR. Although there were no epic ex-Buffalo busts except possibly Rae Carruth, only a couple of wide receivers even came close to meeting expectations. The total CBR for all seven Colorado draft picks is 249 with an average of 36. Another school with more than its share of busts is Houston, the alma mater of such immortals as Elmo Wright, Willis Adams, and David Klinger. With only five players drafted in the first round, Houston’s total CBR of 248 nearly rivals that of Colorado with eight players.
The only other school with a total CBR greater than 200 is Clemson, which had five first rounders, none of whom was better than slightly below average. The main contributions to this total came from Terrance Flagler and Perry Tuttle, but even Steve Fuller donated his mote (2) to the pot.
Running Back Schools
Some universities might produce NFL talent at one position, but most of the players of another position might generally be duds. For example, I have mentioned more than once that Penn State might be Linebacker U, but you do not want your team drafting a running back who played his college ball for the Nitani Lions. The good schools for first-round running backs are Florida, Ohio State, and Texas. The not so good schools, other than Penn State are Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, Richmond, and Wisconsin.
Wide Receiver Schools
As stated above, more wide receivers have been selected in the first round from the University of Tennessee than from any other school. However, the quality of these receivers has been decidedly mixed. On one hand are Stanley Morgan (CBR –77), Willie Gault (-35), and Anthony Miller (-49), but on the other are Anthony Hancock (74) and Marcus Nash (128). The jury is still out on Donte Stallworth who currently has a CBR of 37, but no wide receiver drafted in the 21st Century has yet achieved a negative CBR, so there is still plenty of time to determine if he will uphold the reputation of “Wide Receiver U.”
A couple of other schools that have consistently produced good first round wide receivers are North Carolina State and the University of Southern California. Although none of the former Wolfpack players have been spectacular there have been no busts to date either. The only NC State alumnus not in negative figures is Koren Robinson (43), who is still relatively new to the league. The Trojans produced four straight successful wide receivers such as Curtis Conway (-42) and Johnnie Morton (-48) until along came RJ Soward (102) who completely destroyed the perfect record.
There are two schools that you hope your team doesn’t draft a wide receiver from in the first round. Arizona State has had four wide-outs drafted in the first round since 1970 but only one of these was an even moderate success. The rest are JD Hill (CBR 39), Steve Holden (79), and Aaron Cox (56). The University of California, Los Angeles can’t even claim to have produced a moderate success. All three of the Bruin wide receivers drafted in the first round have positive CBRs with the highest (72) belonging to Freddie Mitchell. Freddie may have only been drafted in 2001, but he has a higher CBR than any receiver drafted in either 2001 or 2002.
Quarterback Schools
The University of Miami (AKA “The U”) has been called “Quarterback U” with reason. The best first round draft pick quarterback who played his college ball for the Hurricanes was Jim Kelly (CBR –123), who is now in the Hall of Fame. But even Vinnie Testaverde, who struggled at times during his long career, ended with a respectable CBR of –69 although it took him nine years in the league before his adjusted score was on the negative side of the scale.
Stanford is the only other school with more than one quarterback drafted in the first round and a 100% success rate. Both Jim Plunkett (CBR –34) and John Elway (-83) were selected first overall in their respective drafts and each won at least one Super Bowl before his career was over, though neither of them for the team that drafted him. Other than Miami and Stanford, the only other schools that have had more than one quarterback selected in the first round and have a negative cumulative score are Tennessee (cumulative CBR –42), UCLA (-30), and Purdue (-1).
As for quarterback bust alma maters, dishonorable mentions should be awarded to Houston and Washington State, which both have cumulative CBRs of 142. Both Andre Ware (CBR 38) and David Klinger (104) played for the Houston Cougars in their college days. As for Washington State (also the Cougars), Jack Thompson’s CBR (36) is balanced by that of Drew Bledsoe (-36), but leave it to Ryan Leaf and his CBR of 142 to screw things up.
But currently the worst quarterback school is the University of Oregon, with a cumulative CBR of 256. Chris Miller (CBR –21) might have been a modest success in his day, but his performance has been overwhelmed by the reek of Akili Smith and the taint of Joey Harrington. As they say, “If it quacks like a Duck than it will probably be a dud.”
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