By Appaloosa
Fourth Quarter Index
Now for the quantitative measure of fourth quarter ability promised at the beginning of this article. First, I reduced the data set to the 37 quarterbacks who started 125 or more games to make for a more statistically significant sample of wins and losses. Then I calculated an index based on comeback win to blown save ratio, comeback wins divided by total starts, QB ratio and points scored per start. The formula is shown below:
Index = (4QW/4QL+4QW/Starts) x QB Ratio x Pts/Start x 10
Where:
4QW = fourth quarter wins
4QL = fourth quarter losses
Pts/Start = total quarterback points divided by number of games started
The base for the index is the ratio of fourth quarter wins and blown saves, which is a good initial measure of the clutchness of a quarterback. However, some credit needed to be given for being able to have a large number of come from behind victories over the course of a career rather than a small handful of wins and losses. Therefore, the number of comeback wins divided by total starts was added to the ratio. Because this total needed to be adjusted to reflect the relative importance of the quarterback to his team, I multiplied the sum by the QB ratio and by points per start. Finally, to make the resulting index a little more user-friendly, I multiplied the total by 10, which generates a number between 10 and 100 in most cases.
The signal callers who started 125 or more games with the highest 4th Quarter indices are Peyton Manning (150.7), Jake Plummer (122.2), Joe Montana (119.2), Dan Marino (114.5), and Donovan McNabb (101.5). This list consists of two Hall of Famers, one probable and one possible future Hall of Famer, and one 4th quarter comeback specialist. The bottom five are Archie Manning (17.2), Jim Harbaugh (19.4), Jim Everett (26.0), Troy Aikman (26.5), and Dan Fouts (26.8) – an interesting grouping of two Hall of Famers and three quarterbacks who spent most of their careers struggling on bad teams. Aikman’s index is dragged down his low QB ratio and points per start, while Fouts has the worst comeback to blown save ratio of any Hall of Famer. Other indices of interest are Kerry Collins (46.0), Warren Moon (67.3), Jim Kelley (68.5), John Elway (71.3), Terry Bradshaw (72.8), Brett Favre (76.3), Steve Young (80.4), and Brad Johnson (83.4).
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