If The Season Ended Today – Week 1

(Another favorite series of mine returns this season. Thanks Stig)

AFC

1. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) - AFC North champs over Steelers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 1st seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

2. San Diego Chargers (1-0) - AFC West champs over Broncos due to a better record in division games. 2nd seed due to the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed.

3. Indianapolis Colts (1-0) - AFC South champs due to overall record. 3rd seed due to the best net points in conference games (+2 net points for Indy, +1 net points for New England).

4. New England Patriots (1-0) - AFC East champs over Jets due to a better record in division games.

5. New York Jets (1-0) - 5th seed over Broncos due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

6. Denver Broncos (1-0) – 6th seed over Steelers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Yup, that’s right folks. The defending SB champs are out of the playoffs after Week 1. They are the only 1-0 AFC team to miss the postseason.

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (1-0) - NFC West champs over 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 1st seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

2. Green Bay Packers (1-0) – NFC North champs over Vikings due to a better record in division games. 2nd seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

3. New York Giants (1-0) – NFC East champs over Eagles and Cowboys due to a better record in division games. 3rd seed due to the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed.

4. New Orleans Saints (1-0) – NFC South champs over Falcons due to a better record in conference games.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) – 5th seed over Cowboys and 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

6. Dallas Cowboys (1-0) – 6th seed over 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

Sorry, Falcons and Vikings. Guess you should have played someone in your own conference.

Top 5 Picks in the 2010 Draft

The draft order hinges primarily on two things: overall record, and strength of schedule. If we consider teams’ entire schedules, and how those yet-to-be-played opponents fared in Week 1 (for example, the Bills’ opponents currently have a combined record of 7-9), determining the top 5 picks is actually pretty easy, though we have to go to divisional and conference tiebreakers.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) - SOS (.375) 1st pick over the Texans due to a a worse record in division games.

2. Houston Texans (0-1) - SOS (.375)

3. Buffalo Bills (0-1) - SOS (.438)

4/5. St. Louis Rams (0-1) and Tennessee Titans (0-1) – SOS (.500) The Rams get this position over the Cardinals due to a worse combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. However, the Rams and Titans must be decided by a coin flip, since they are from different conferences, and none of the conference tiebreakers apply.

However, if you see SOS as merely a current snapshot of the teams already played (and not teams yet-to-be-played), then you have 16 teams sitting at 0-1, all with a SOS of 1.000. So various divisional tiebreakers came into play, and I identified the last-place team in each division. Seeing as all 4 AFC teams had conference losses and all 4 NFC teams had conference losses, I was tempted to use the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed tiebreaker to whittle those teams down, but then I wasn’t quite sure how AFC and NFC teams would pair up for further tiebreakers. So instead, I proceeded to the next tiebreaker, the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed. And this is how it shook out.

1. St. Louis Rams (0-1)

2. Carolina Panthers (0-1)

3. Chicago Bears (0-1) – 3rd pick over Redskins due to worst net touchdowns in all games (-1 for Chicago, 0 for Washington). This is the absolute last applicable tiebreaker before a coin flip.

4. Washington Redskins (0-1)

5. Oakland Raiders (0-1)

Just missing the top 5: Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville

Tagged as: if the season ended today