If the season ended today..., Week 1 Options

[volsung]

This is a tough bit to do in the first week of the season, since there isn't a whole lot of data available to break ties. I had to go a decent way down the list of tiebreakers to determine playoff teams and seeding, and the top 5 in the draft was even worse, because there are two ways to go about it (more on this below). Bear in mind that tiebreakers were not designed to be used this early, and I had to do a little bit of interpretation in some areas (particularly in the draft order), so this may not be 100% accurate. But then, nobody else is doing this so early, so I guess you have to deal with what you've got.

AFC

1. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) - AFC North champs over Steelers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 1st seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

2. San Diego Chargers (1-0) - AFC West champs over Broncos due to a better record in division games. 2nd seed due to the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed.

3. Indianapolis Colts (1-0) - AFC South champs due to overall record. 3rd seed due to the best net points in conference games (+2 net points for Indy, +1 net points for New England).

4. New England Patriots (1-0) - AFC East champs over Jets due to a better record in division games.

5. New York Jets (1-0) - 5th seed over Broncos due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

6. Denver Broncos (1-0) - 6th seed over Steelers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.


Yup, that's right folks. The defending SB champs are out of the playoffs after Week 1. They are the only 1-0 AFC team to miss the postseason.


NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (1-0) - NFC West champs over 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 1st seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

2. Green Bay Packers (1-0) - NFC North champs over Vikings due to a better record in division games. 2nd seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

3. New York Giants (1-0) - NFC East champs over Eagles and Cowboys due to a better record in division games. 3rd seed due to the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed.

4. New Orleans Saints (1-0) - NFC South champs over Falcons due to a better record in conference games.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) - 5th seed over Cowboys and 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

6. Dallas Cowboys (1-0) - 6th seed over 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.


Sorry, Falcons and Vikings. Guess you should have played someone in your own conference.


Top 5 Picks in the 2010 Draft

The draft order hinges primarily on two things: overall record, and strength of schedule. If we consider teams' entire schedules, and how those yet-to-be-played opponents fared in Week 1 (for example, the Bills' opponents currently have a combined record of 7-9), determining the top 5 picks is actually pretty easy, though we have to go to divisional and conference tiebreakers.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) - SOS (.375) 1st pick over the Texans due to a a worse record in division games.

2. Houston Texans (0-1) - SOS (.375)

3. Buffalo Bills (0-1) - SOS (.438)

4/5. St. Louis Rams (0-1) and Tennessee Titans (0-1) - SOS (.500) The Rams get this position over the Cardinals due to a worse combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. However, the Rams and Titans must be decided by a coin flip, since they are from different conferences, and none of the conference tiebreakers apply.


However, if you see SOS as merely a current snapshot of the teams already played (and not teams yet-to-be-played), then you have 16 teams sitting at 0-1, all with a SOS of 1.000. So various divisional tiebreakers came into play, and I identified the last-place team in each division. Seeing as all 4 AFC teams had conference losses and all 4 NFC teams had conference losses, I was tempted to use the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed tiebreaker to whittle those teams down, but then I wasn't quite sure how AFC and NFC teams would pair up for further tiebreakers. So instead, I proceeded to the next tiebreaker, the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed. And this is how it shook out.


1. St. Louis Rams (0-1)

2. Carolina Panthers (0-1)

3. Chicago Bears (0-1) - 3rd pick over Redskins due to worst net touchdowns in all games (-1 for Chicago, 0 for Washington). This is the absolute last applicable tiebreaker before a coin flip.

4. Washington Redskins (0-1)

5. Oakland Raiders (0-1)


Just missing the top 5: Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville

[MrMojoRisin]

This is a tough bit to do in the first week of the season, since there isn't a whole lot of data available to break ties. I had to go a decent way down the list of tiebreakers to determine playoff teams and seeding, and the top 5 in the draft was even worse, because there are two ways to go about it (more on this below). Bear in mind that tiebreakers were not designed to be used this early, and I had to do a little bit of interpretation in some areas (particularly in the draft order), so this may not be 100% accurate. But then, nobody else is doing this so early, so I guess you have to deal with what you've got.

AFC

1. Baltimore Ravens (1-0) - AFC North champs over Steelers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 1st seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

2. San Diego Chargers (1-0) - AFC West champs over Broncos due to a better record in division games. 2nd seed due to the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed.

3. Indianapolis Colts (1-0) - AFC South champs due to overall record. 3rd seed due to the best net points in conference games (+2 net points for Indy, +1 net points for New England).

4. New England Patriots (1-0) - AFC East champs over Jets due to a better record in division games.

5. New York Jets (1-0) - 5th seed over Broncos due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

6. Denver Broncos (1-0) - 6th seed over Steelers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Yup, that's right folks. The defending SB champs are out of the playoffs after Week 1. They are the only 1-0 AFC team to miss the postseason.
NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks (1-0) - NFC West champs over 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 1st seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

2. Green Bay Packers (1-0) - NFC North champs over Vikings due to a better record in division games. 2nd seed due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

3. New York Giants (1-0) - NFC East champs over Eagles and Cowboys due to a better record in division games. 3rd seed due to the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed.

4. New Orleans Saints (1-0) - NFC South champs over Falcons due to a better record in conference games.

5. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) - 5th seed over Cowboys and 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

6. Dallas Cowboys (1-0) - 6th seed over 49ers due to the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Sorry, Falcons and Vikings. Guess you should have played someone in your own conference.


Top 5 Picks in the 2010 Draft

The draft order hinges primarily on two things: overall record, and strength of schedule. If we consider teams' entire schedules, and how those yet-to-be-played opponents fared in Week 1 (for example, the Bills' opponents currently have a combined record of 7-9), determining the top 5 picks is actually pretty easy, though we have to go to divisional and conference tiebreakers.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) - SOS (.375) 1st pick over the Texans due to a a worse record in division games.

2. Houston Texans (0-1) - SOS (.375)

3. Buffalo Bills (0-1) - SOS (.438)

4/5. St. Louis Rams (0-1) and Tennessee Titans (0-1) - SOS (.500) The Rams get this position over the Cardinals due to a worse combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. However, the Rams and Titans must be decided by a coin flip, since they are from different conferences, and none of the conference tiebreakers apply.


However, if you see SOS as merely a current snapshot of the teams already played (and not teams yet-to-be-played), then you have 16 teams sitting at 0-1, all with a SOS of 1.000. So various divisional tiebreakers came into play, and I identified the last-place team in each division. Seeing as all 4 AFC teams had conference losses and all 4 NFC teams had conference losses, I was tempted to use the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed tiebreaker to whittle those teams down, but then I wasn't quite sure how AFC and NFC teams would pair up for further tiebreakers. So instead, I proceeded to the next tiebreaker, the best combined ranking among league teams in points scored and points allowed. And this is how it shook out.
1. St. Louis Rams (0-1)

2. Carolina Panthers (0-1)

3. Chicago Bears (0-1) - 3rd pick over Redskins due to worst net touchdowns in all games (-1 for Chicago, 0 for Washington). This is the absolute last applicable tiebreaker before a coin flip.

4. Washington Redskins (0-1)

5. Oakland Raiders (0-1)
Just missing the top 5: Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville

Great work Stig.


It's funny though to think the Steelers with a win are out a this point.

[Ben6821]

This is a tough bit to do in the first week of the season, since there isn't a whole lot of data available to break ties. I had to go a decent way down the list of tiebreakers to determine playoff teams and seeding, and the top 5 in the draft was even worse, because there are two ways to go about it (more on this below). Bear in mind that tiebreakers were not designed to be used this early, and I had to do a little bit of interpretation in some areas (particularly in the draft order), so this may not be 100% accurate. But then, nobody else is doing this so early, so I guess you have to deal with what you've got.

I am

how are GB and new york not coin tossing for the 3 and 4 seeds? or wait..NET TDs...hangon forgot that one

[normativity]

Damnit. I have to wait another week to see Kansas City on the list.

[MrMojoRisin]

Damnit. I have to wait another week to see Kansas City on the list.

I think you'll be saying that a lot this year.

[FourthStooge]

If you rule out SOS at this point, I'm pretty sure the Panthers have the #1 pick due to having the worst interception to pass ratio. At least I am lobbying for that to be used as an early tiebreaker.

[MrMojoRisin]

If you rule out SOS at this point, I'm pretty sure the Panthers have the #1 pick due to having the worst interception to pass ratio. At least I am lobbying for that to be used as an early tiebreaker.

And they still won't take a QB. If they do they are probably dumb enough to take Tebow over McCoy.

[Ben6821]

I came out NFC
1. Seattle (conference points scored/allowed)
2. New Orleans (conference points scored/allowed)
3. Green Bay (net TDs over Giants 2:1 vs 2:2)
4. New York
5. Philly (points over dallas for NFCE 2 slot, conf record over minny and Atlanta, points over San Fran)
6. Dallas (conf record over minny and Atlanta, points over San Fran)

and you dont have to rule out SOS and SOV

SOV every winner has a zero so its a tie

SOS you would use current snapshot value vs whole season since ITSET those games never happen (just like the common games tiebreaker technically doesnt count until both sides have played 4 games) in which case, again every 1-0 team has an SOS of zero

[volsung]

I am

how are GB and new york not coin tossing for the 3 and 4 seeds? or wait..NET TDs...hangon forgot that one

GB gets the 2 over NYG and NO due to combined ranking in conference for points scored/allowed. GB= 8th scored, 4th allowed. NYG = 7th scored, 6th allowed, NO = 1st scored, 12th allowed.

NYG and NO had to go to combined ranking in the league for points scored/allowed. NYG = 13th scored, 13th allowed. NO = 1st scored, 26th allowed.

[FourthStooge]

And they still won't take a QB. If they do they are probably dumb enough to take Tebow over McCoy.

They haven't taken a QB because Delhomme has 8 x 10 glossies of Fox with farm animals. Fox has 8 x 10 glossies of Richardson with the South Carolina governor's wife while he was out with his mistress, uh, soul mate.

[normativity]

I think you'll be saying that a lot this year.

I don't think so. They're weren't as good as people think they were in Week 1. They'll shit the bed soon enough.

At this point, I'd rather see the Patriots and Tom Brady win and be successful than to watch KC ever be good. I'd have to never come out of my house if that were the case.

I might talk shit about the Pats and their fans on the board in jest, but every one I've personally met is a good football fan. I can't say that about Chiefs fans.

[volsung]

I came out NFC
1. Seattle (conference points scored/allowed)
2. New Orleans (conference points scored/allowed)
3. Green Bay (net TDS over Giants 2:1 vs 2:2)
4. New York

The thing about that points/scored allowed tiebreaker is that the language is thus:

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

And since there is a later tiebreaker that talks about "net points," that suggests to me that this tiebreaker focuses more on the ranking, rather than the actual number of points scored and allowed (which is handled in those later tiebreakers).

[MrMojoRisin]

I don't think so. They're weren't as good as people think they were in Week 1. They'll shit the bed soon enough.

At this point, I'd rather see the Patriots and Tom Brady win and be successful than to watch KC ever be good. I'd have to never come out of my house if that were the case.

I might talk shit about the Pats and their fans on the board in jest, but every one I've personally met is a good football fan. I can't say that about Chiefs fans.

Wow that is a shame, I would like to think there are good fans everywhere. So in essence all KC fans are M? Shit Philly fans have a bad rep but I would love to tailgate with those guy's I just think it would be amazing.

[SoCal]

If the season ended today I would be a sad mofo...one week of football and 51 without, why even get up in the morning?

[Ben6821]

The thing about that points/scored allowed tiebreaker is that the language is thus:

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

And since there is a later tiebreaker that talks about "net points," that suggests to me that this tiebreaker focuses more on the ranking, rather than the actual number of points scored and allowed (which is handled in those later tiebreakers).

ok yeah that makes sense...in the intradivision tiebreaker set it goes conf games, all games, common games and..I though.,.div games (but its actually all games again)

I never noticed they repeated types and just thought it was clumsy syntax translation from the old rules and the two types were the same thing.


but then...how do you score the rankings...1=32 2=31 and so on down?